紐時賞析／經濟遭戰火重創 伊朗尋找出路

一名工人拆解德黑蘭遭空襲後，受損建築的鋼結構。（紐約時報）

Iran Tries to Grasp Economic Devastation of War, and Find a Way Past It

經濟遭戰火重創 伊朗尋找出路

Iran's economy was in shambles long before bombs began to drop on Feb. 28. Sanctions imposed years ago by the United States, and more recently by the United Nations, depleted government resources and contributed to the collapse of the currency. An energy crisis brought widespread power cuts. Rampant mismanagement and corruption worsened inflation, which recently spiked to 50%.

早在2月28日遭到轟炸前，伊朗經濟早已千瘡百孔。美國多年來的制裁，以及聯合國最近追加的制裁，大幅耗損政府資源，導致貨幣崩跌。能源危機造成全國大範圍停電，管理失當與貪腐問題則讓通貨膨脹雪上加霜，最近更一度飆升至50%。

The war, however, has delivered a staggering blow. Intense U.S. and Israeli bombardment has destroyed or damaged petrochemical plants, steel manufacturing plants, pharmaceutical factories, universities, schools, hospitals, banks, seaports, airports, parts of the power grid, bridges, railroads, shops, homes and more.

無論如何，這場戰爭帶來毀滅性的重擊。美國與以色列的密集轟炸，摧毀或重創了石化廠、鋼鐵廠、製藥廠、大學、中小學、醫院、銀行、海港、機場、部分電網、橋樑、鐵路、商店、民宅等衆多設施。

Iran is still assessing the cost of the calamity since the fragile ceasefire took hold Tuesday, but early estimates are between $300 billion and $1 trillion, according to three Iranian officials who were not authorized to speak publicly, and two economists. Recovery will take years.

脆弱的停火協議自週二（4月7日）生效以來，伊朗仍在評估這場災難的總損失。根據三名未獲授權公開發言的伊朗官員，以及兩名經濟學家的說法，初步估計損失介於3000億至1兆美元之間。重建工作將耗時數年。

Economists said that attacks on Iran's largest petrochemical complexes and steel plants, which according to Iranian media employed more than 200,000 people, were among the most damaging to the economy, with far-reaching consequences. The agricultural, manufacturing, textile and other industries that bought their products will have to import supplies instead, slowing production and driving up prices. Furloughed workers will provide less business to shopkeepers.

經濟學家指出，伊朗最大石化廠園區與鋼鐵廠遭到攻擊，是這次經濟損失中最嚴重的部分。根據伊朗媒體報導，這些工廠僱用超過20萬人，其影響將波及深遠。原本採購這些產品的農業、製造業、紡織業等產業，現在必須改爲進口原料，導致生產放緩、物價上漲。大量工人被迫放無薪假，商店生意更冷清。

The three Iranian officials estimated that more than 1 million people have lost their jobs.

三名伊朗官員估計，全國已有超過100萬人失去工作。

“The pathway for Iran's economic development has been closed by this war,” said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, the CEO of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, a London-based think tank that tracks the Iranian economy. “The reality is that Iran is going to have a very difficult time rebuilding or reconstructing critical infrastructure if it remains under sanctions.”

「這場戰爭已經封閉了伊朗經濟發展的道路，」倫敦智庫「交易所與市場基金會」執行長巴特曼格利吉表示，「現實情況是，如果制裁持續存在，伊朗要重建或修復關鍵基礎設施，都會非常困難。」

He said the economic losses from the war would reinforce Iran’s resolve to demand sanctions relief in negotiations. Iran will need foreign investment and the ability to buy machinery from abroad if it is to recover and address public discontent that has led to waves of protests.

他指出，戰爭造成的經濟損失，將讓伊朗在談判中更堅定要求解除制裁。要讓經濟復甦並平息已引發多波抗議的民衆不滿，伊朗必須獲得外國投資，並有能力從國外採購機械設備。

文／Farnaz Fassihi，譯／國際中心